In this guide
1. Morocco: the recent benchmark, with a new man in charge2. Croatia: one last tournament for Modrić3. Uruguay: Bielsa has the tools to spring a shock4. Colombia: the unbeaten team nobody is talking about5. Japan: ready to break the last-16 ceiling6. Ecuador: young, organised and hard to beat7. Norway: Haaland and Ødegaard, finally on the big stage8. Senegal: one of the strongest African squads in the field9. Saudi Arabia: the outside bet with a habit of shocks10. Türkiye: a young team with a high ceilingThe ten dark horses at a glanceFAQsItaly have won the World Cup four times, and in 2026 they did not even qualify. They lost a penalty shootout to Bosnia and Herzegovina in March and missed a third tournament running, proof that pedigree counts for little. That absence leaves room for World Cup 2026 dark horses, and the new format gives them more opportunity than ever. With 48 teams and 32 reaching the knockout round, the group stage barely thins the field.
The real test is the bracket that follows, and that is where an outsider can build a run. Morocco showed how it is done in 2022, and the expanded format means more contenders than ever will reach the knockouts. We have broken down the biggest group-stage matches these teams must come through, with fixtures spread across the United States, Mexico and Canada. These are ten sides with the squad and the draw to go further than most expect, with the route each of them faces.
1. Morocco: the recent benchmark, with a new man in charge
Morocco is the reason this list exists. In Qatar, they knocked out Spain on penalties and beat Portugal to reach the semi-finals, the first African or Arab nation to do so. Most of that squad is intact, with Achraf Hakimi and goalkeeper Yassine Bounou still at the core. The dugout has changed, though: Walid Regragui resigned in March, having pledged to step down if Morocco did not win the Africa Cup of Nations on home soil, and Mohamed Ouahbi, who guided the Under-20 side to the world title last year, has taken charge. Group C is challenging mainly because of Brazil, alongside Scotland and Haiti. The Brazil vs Morocco group match is the one that will decide top spot, and our Morocco fan guide covers travel and base cities. Second place, and another deep run, is well within range.
2. Croatia: one last tournament for Modrić
Few teams travel better at a World Cup than Croatia. They reached the final in 2018 and finished third in 2022, controlling midfield and holding their nerve in shootouts. Luka Modrić is 40 now, and this is almost certainly his last major tournament, with Joško Gvardiol anchoring the next generation behind him. They sit in Group L with England, Ghana and Panama, a section they should clear in second. The England vs Croatia group match will likely settle first place, and on recent form, the knockout rounds hold no fear for them.
3. Uruguay: Bielsa has the tools to spring a shock
Uruguay went out in the group stage in 2022, but the side Marcelo Bielsa has built since is a different proposition. Federico Valverde and Ronald Araújo lead a squad that reached the Copa América semi-finals in 2024, and Bielsa's pressing can unsettle anyone on its day. The two-time champions open against Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde before the likely group decider, the Uruguay vs Spain match, so a top-two finish in Group H is the realistic aim. Get out of the group, and Uruguay become a side few would want to draw.
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4. Colombia: the unbeaten team nobody is talking about
Colombia are among the most underrated sides in North America. Under Néstor Lorenzo, they put together a 28-match unbeaten run, the longest in their history, beating Germany, Brazil and Spain before Argentina edged the 2024 Copa América final in extra time. James Rodríguez remains the creative focal point of a balanced, experienced team. Colombia landed in Group K with Portugal, Uzbekistan and DR Congo, about as kind a draw as a second seed could hope for. The Colombia vs Portugal match aside, they may have the clearest path to the quarter-finals of every team here.
5. Japan: ready to break the last-16 ceiling
Japan have qualified for seven World Cups and never gone beyond the last 16, yet they keep getting closer. They beat Germany and Spain in the 2022 group stage and were the first nation to seal a 2026 place, back in March 2025. Hajime Moriyasu's squad is deep and almost entirely European-based, with Kaoru Mitoma and Takefusa Kubo providing the spark. Group F brings the Netherlands, Sweden and Tunisia, a tricky draw rather than an impossible one, and the Netherlands vs Japan match is the early marker. If the breakthrough is going to come, this expanded format is the moment.
6. Ecuador: young, organised and hard to beat
Ecuador are the wildcard here, the youngest and most fearless team on the list. Sebastián Beccacece has built a side around Moisés Caicedo and a group of players in their early twenties, well-drilled at the back and quick on the break. They open in Group E against Germany, Ivory Coast and Curaçao, with second place a real possibility, and the Ecuador vs Germany match is the measure of how far they have come. They have never reached a World Cup quarter-final, so even the quarter-finals would be new ground. The ceiling is lower than the others, but the floor is high, and they are nobody's easy game.
7. Norway: Haaland and Ødegaard, finally on the big stage
Norway have not played a World Cup since 1998, which makes them the great unknown of 2026. They also have Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, two of the world's most influential players, plus a forward line that tore through qualifying. The catch is the draw: Group I is the toughest section any outsider faces, and the Norway vs France match shows why, with a strong Senegal side also in the mix. Reaching the knockouts may even hinge on the eight best third-place spots. Ståle Solbakken, part of that 1998 squad, knows the talent is there. Whether a team with limited recent tournament experience can deliver under pressure is the key question, and it is why Norway are the boldest call here.
8. Senegal: one of the strongest African squads in the field
Senegal arrives as arguably the best African team at the tournament, and for their third World Cup in a row. They won the Africa Cup of Nations in 2021 and reached the last 16 in Qatar, and Pape Thiaw can call on a squad packed with Premier League and Saudi Pro League experience. Kalidou Koulibaly captains the side, Édouard Mendy is behind him in goal, and Sadio Mané leads the attack in what the 34-year-old says will be his final World Cup. The problem is Group I: France and Norway make it brutal, and the France vs Senegal opener on 16 June sets the bar immediately. Survive that group, and a few sides will fancy facing them.
9. Saudi Arabia: the outside bet with a habit of shocks
Saudi Arabia is the longest shot on this list, and they enter the tournament as clear outsiders. They have not gone beyond a World Cup group since 1994. The squad is built almost entirely on the home league, and Georgios Donis took the job only in April after Hervé Renard was sacked. What they do have is a feel for the spectacular: in 2022, they beat eventual champions Argentina, with captain Salem Al-Dawsari scoring the winner. Group H, with Spain and fellow outsiders Uruguay, makes a knockout place a tall order, and the Spain vs Saudi Arabia match is the steepest test of all. For the region's large travelling support, it is a story worth following, and our Saudi Arabia fan guide has the details. Going deep would be the upset of the tournament.
10. Türkiye: a young team with a high ceiling
Türkiye are back at a World Cup for the first time since 2002, the year they finished third, and they return with one of the most exciting young squads in the field. Arda Güler of Real Madrid and Kenan Yıldız of Juventus lead the attack, with captain Hakan Çalhanoğlu setting the tempo behind them, and Vincenzo Montella took them to the Euro 2024 quarter-finals. The draw helps: Group D pairs them with hosts the United States, Australia and Paraguay, none of them elite. The Türkiye vs USA match could decide top spot, and if this attack clicks, the quarter-finals are a realistic target rather than a dream.
No outsider is guaranteed anything, but with 32 of 48 teams reaching the knockouts, more dark horses will have an opportunity in 2026 than at any previous World Cup. Wherever your team plays, our host city guides cover the venues and our guide to Fan ID and entry rules explains what is needed at the border. As a verified secondary marketplace established in 2006, 1BoxOffice lists resale tickets for every group and knockout match, each backed by a 150% money-back guarantee.
The ten dark horses at a glance
| Team | Group | Why they could go deep | Toughest group test |
|---|---|---|---|
| Morocco | C | 2022 semi-finalists with most of the squad intact | Brazil |
| Croatia | L | 2018 finalists and 2022 third place, led by Modrić | England |
| Uruguay | H | Bielsa's side, Copa América semi-finalists in 2024 | Spain |
| Colombia | K | 28 games unbeaten with the kindest knockout path | Portugal |
| Japan | F | Beat Germany and Spain in 2022, deep European-based squad | Netherlands |
| Ecuador | E | Young, organised and hard to break down | Germany |
| Norway | I | Haaland and Ødegaard on their first major stage | France |
| Senegal | I | 2021 African champions with a deep, experienced squad | France |
| Saudi Arabia | H | Beat Argentina in 2022 and thrive as underdogs | Spain |
| Türkiye | D | Euro 2024 quarter-finalists with a gifted young attack | United States |
FAQs
1. When does the World Cup 2026 knockout stage start?
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The round of 32 begins on 28 June 2026, with the final played on 19 July at MetLife Stadium near New York.
2. Do fans need a Fan ID for the World Cup in 2026?
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Entry and travel rules differ by country across the United States, Mexico and Canada, so check the latest requirements for each host nation before you travel.
3. Which African teams could go far in 2026?
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Morocco and Senegal lead the African challenge, with Morocco's run to the 2022 semi-finals still the benchmark no African nation has yet beaten by reaching a final.
4. Which nations are favourites to win in 2026?
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Spain, Argentina, France, England, Brazil and Portugal head most predictions, which is precisely why the teams above are classed as outsiders.
5. Are resale tickets covered by a guarantee?
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Yes, verified resale tickets listed at 1BoxOffice are backed by a 150% money-back guarantee if a valid ticket fails to arrive or the buyer is denied entry.
Sources: BBC Sport, ESPN, Al Jazeera, France 24, Olympics.com, Daily Sabah, beIN Sports.
